After spending billions of dollars on electrification, Caltrain is still carrying fewer riders than before the pandemic.

"When are we going to stop describing our ridership as a percentage of pre-COVID? [... W]e are playing into a narrative of relative failure" —Public transit consultant Jarrett Walker

But Caltrain is a failure. Caltrain has only just reached ⅔ of pre-pandemic average weekday ridership, despite spending over $2 billion on electrification and a new fleet, reducing travel times by 5 to 10 minutes for typical trips, and bringing half-hourly all-day service to all stations. The improvements are nearly 2 years old, and ⅓ less ridership is the best result that the board, the executives, the management, the planners, the consultants, and the vendors could deliver?

The Bay Area's local bus systems are approaching pre-pandemic ridership levels. They never benefited from lavish capital investment. They are providing much less service than before the pandemic (and historically), due to declining operating subsidies.

I've gotten around on public transit all my life. I've been scrutinizing schedules, fares, operating budgets, and capital projects, and participating in the public process, for 30 years. I myself am tired of making excuses for the transit industry!

Ridership is one of the few objective indicators of success. Transit agencies do have control. If they plan, build, and operate systems that match people's needs, people will ride. In what other industry do we celebrate output without regard for demand?

Adapted from my comment on "Public Transit Is Not 'Coming Back' ... It's Doing Something Better", a June 23, 2026 blog post by Jarrett Walker of Human Transit fame. Re: objectivity, transit agencies often publish ridership figures that are not comparable (calendar difference, special event service, extension or service increase, new counting method, new discount fare, etc.).