Let's hope transit funding passes, but plan to revive bus-to-train connections if not.

I hope the November, 2026 San Francisco Bay Area Regional Transit Measure passes but I fear that BART, Caltrain, and AC Transit intend to carry out reckless rather than targeted service reductions if Measure RTM fails. It's a shame that SPUR has hopped on the uncritical bandwagon.

"Some even suggest the transit agencies have dramatized their contingency plans to help advance an agenda.

"But SPUR used these plans as the basis for 'Bumper to Bumper' — with some caveats. Staff at the nonprofit and their consultant, the engineering and infrastructure firm Jacobs, extrapolated a few crucial details for their premise. BART and Caltrain both relayed how many train stations they would have to shut down, but did not confirm which ones would be on the chopping block. SPUR and Jacobs assumed the lowest-ridership stations would be first to go, a notion that they claim makes the findings 'intrinsically conservative,' the report said."

—Rachel Swan, "A Bay Area transit 'death spiral' could double Bay Bridge delays, report says", San Francisco Chronicle, September 22, 2026

If the goals were to manage congestion and preserve public transit mobility, BART would not be proposing arbitrary, largely uniform half-hourly service, and Caltrain would not be proposing arbitrary, uniform hourly service.

The agencies would concentrate rail service during commute hours, when bridge and freeway congestion is greatest. During non-commute hours, they would provide trunk-line rail service, and shift some resources back to suburban feeder bus service.

The word "bus" appears nowhere in contingency plans from BART or Caltrain, even though express buses were the way those of us who have always depended on public transit got around before BART extensions began to open in the mid-1990s.

  • BART Express Bus: Dublin, Pleasanton, Livermore, Martinez, North Concord, Pittsburg, etc.
  • samTrans 7X/KX bus: Colma, South San Francisco, SFO, and beyond
  • Santa Clara VTA 180/181 bus: Milpitas, San José

Historically, this was high-quality bus service:

  • Same days and hours as trains
  • At least every half hour, Monday to Friday, and at least every hour, at night and on weekends
  • Dedicated bus fleets with padded seats (no longer provided on most local buses in the Bay Area)

BART has no excuse for not mentioning the East Bay express bus network it used to fund and manage. And transit riders haven't enjoyed the same level of coordination since! BART controlled service levels. Transfers were timed and BART communicated with the bus contractor so that buses could be held for delayed trains. (You might still see a rotating orange beacon near the bus plaza at Bay Fair Station.) BART published combined bus and train schedules. One call center answered questions about both modes.

Caltrain has no excuse for not mentioning the Peninsula express bus network that samTrans funded and managed in the days when samTrans and Caltrain were one agency.

AC Transit is also in on this. They plan to trim local bus service to preserve the bus rapid transit line that runs entirely in the shadow of BART. Fares on the two transit systems serving the Oakland-to-San Leandro corridor are incompatible. Whereas BART and Caltrain make no mention of bus service in their contingency plans, AC Transit's plan acknowledges train service, if only to give BART (and riders) the finger by proposing an incompatible service frequency. BART trains will run every 30 minutes but some AC Transit buses, every 40.

SPUR, concerned as it is with urban history and good government, has no excuse for forgetting feeder bus service. SPUR accepted zero-cooperation contingency plans from the transit agencies and Jacobs/StreetLight fed those plans into its computer model. Garbage in, garbage out!

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